latest-news

LucidTalk at DUP Conference

LucidTalk will be exhibiting at the DUP conference. If you’re attending come along and meet us on our stand. We will be running a ballot for DUP members to gauge support regarding Unionist election pacts for next May’s Westminster election. See the ballot here: PartyConfBallot-DUP


Full Coverage of latest Belfast Telegraph-LucidTalk NI-Wide poll-project

The annual LucidTalk ‘state-of-the-nation’ NI-Wide poll-project took place in September/October. The Belfast Telegraph provided a comprehensive full weeks coverage of all the results, along with detailed analysis and commentary. See here for all this coverage:   BelTelCoverage-2014


Full Results: Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk NI-Wide Poll-Project

Full data results from the recent Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk NI-Wide poll project can be reviewed here: BelTelePollRes-Oct2014.


Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk NI-Wide Poll-Project – Full Results here soon

Following the annual Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk NI-Wide poll project which was fully covered with results and analysis in the Belfast Telegraph this week. Full Results including Results tables will appear here shortly. See full details at: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/data-centre/


Belfast Telegraph & Lucidtalk Team Up For NI Wide Omnibus Poll-Project

September/October 2014
Full results, coverage and analysis in the Belfast Telegraph in early October 2014.

The next Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk Northern Ireland (NI) wide poll-project will take place in September, with a full week’s coverage of the poll results, analysis, and commentary in the Belfast Telegraph in early October. The poll-project will involve collating the views of 1,080 NI citizens, carefully selected so that the overall views of this group will mathematically represent the total views of the NI public to within an error of only +/- 2.9%.

Both public and private sector organisations can participate in the poll-project as sponsor-partners. Sponsor-partners receive a package of services including:

1-3 poll questions within the full NI-Wide poll-project.
Representative Market Research across NI.
Marketing and promotion of the sponsor-partner’s name, business and objectives to several thousand NI residents who are contacted as part of the poll-project, and as direct respondents to the poll.
If applicable, and as agreed with the sponsor-partner, corresponding publicity, commentary, and promotion of the poll-project results in the Belfast Telegraph.
Full results report relating to the 1-3 sponsor-partner contributed poll questions, plus full demographic analysis covering gender, age-group, occupation, community background, and NI region.
Follow-up Management presentation and Workshop with each Sponsor-Partner to review poll-project results.
Further details regarding participation in the Belfast Telegraph-LucidTalk NI-Wide poll-project are available on request.

If you have any queries, or require any further information, then please call/contact us at anytime.


Live Blog from Election Counts

LucidTalk will be monitoring the Belfast Council election counts ‘live’ and ‘as it happens’ ( as CNN say!), tomorrow, and Saturday, and also at the Euro Election count on Monday. We will be tallying the ballot boxes and will be able to provide results forecasts 1-2 hours before the official results are announced. Follow all the news, predictions, patterns, and forecasts of results at: Belfast Telegraph ‘Live Blog’ Link


LucidTalk – NI Euro Election and Analysis

LucidTalk have undertaken a detailed review and analysis of this week’s Northern Ireland Euro election, taking place this Thursday (22nd May). This was published in the Belfast Telegraph on 7th May. For full review and analysis see: Euro Analysis – Belfast Telegraph.


It’s the turnout in Flagship elections that counts – Bill White

You may have noted Alex Kane’s column stating he would not be voting at the forthcoming European and Council elections. He also said that if turnout was lower than 50% it would be ‘a good thing’, as it may have an impact on local politics. Alex is a shrewd operator, but he could also make a good pollster as he’s following the key rule – don’t stick your neck out too far with predictions. He’s certainly not taking any risks with this assertion, as if the Euro/Council poll turnout gets anyway near 50% it will be an achievement, taking into account the Euro 2009 election had only a 43% turnout.  

I also noted Sam McBride’s commentary in the Newsletter about election turnouts. He mentioned that in the US they are often below 40%, and this doesn’t impact US politics that much. He’s correct, in that the Americans vote for everything including Sheriffs, and Court judges etc., and that’s where the low turnouts come in. The UK also has only 30-40% turnouts in local elections. As such, you can’t really say that if the forthcoming poll on May 22nd is below 50% then it will affect the flow of politics in Northern Ireland. Why? – Because the May 22nd elections are Euro and Council elections and are not flagship elections.  

All modern countries and western democracies have a flagship election i.e. a main election – The election when they show to the world that they’re a modern thriving democracy. It’s the turnout in a countries flagship or main election that counts, and gives that country (or region) democratic legitimacy. In the US it’s the election of their president, in the UK it’s the Westminster election, and in Northern Ireland it’s our Assembly election. In the US presidential and UK Westminster elections the turnout has always been 60% to over 70 %. At the last US presidential election the turnout was estimated at around 65% of the ‘voter electorate population’, which was a remarkable achievement taking into account many people had to queue at polling stations! Admittedly it’s hard to get an accurate turnout figure in US elections because of their complicated registration procedures, which vary from state to state – but it’s always been well over 50% in their presidential elections. These flagship elections are where Alex Kane’s point comes true – If the US Presidential election, or Westminster election turnout, fell below 50%, then it would be a very serious situation for both those countries, and would almost certainly lead to large changes in their democratic structures. 

In Northern Ireland our flagship election is the NI Assembly election, with the last election in 2011 having a dangerously low turnout of 54.7%. It’s significant to note that this was a drop from the 62.3% turnout in 2007, which was a drop from 63.1% in 2003, and 69.9% in 1998. The next Assembly election will take place in 2016, and a similar drop again would mean a turnout below that magical 50%. This could destabilise the whole assembly and wider peace-process structures. This wouldn’t happen immediately, but the democratic legitimacy of the assembly would be gone, and I would predict that within 2-3 years of the 2016 election the Assembly would collapse, or else would have to be completely reformed.   

So why are less and less people voting? There are various reasons for this – Indeed Sam McBride made another comment, that he recently heard a Stormont Minister (and I’ve a good idea who this is) saying that non-voting ‘could be interpreted as apathy arising from contentment’. That Minister is wrong – The polling research shows that a key reason people are not voting, is not because they’re particularly content, it’s because they believe that whoever they vote for, or whatever party get’s elected, it won’t make any difference to their own (often not contented) lives. How someone can say that non-voting people are mostly content, in a region where we’ve had a huge economic recession, NI youth employment is 1 in 4, large No’s of people are on the minimum wage, and a region that’s had the largest housing slump in the UK and significant No’s of people are in negative equity, is beyond me. This comment perhaps shows how out-of-touch the folks on the hill really are. 

One thing is clear though – The trend in Northern Ireland elections, and in all western democracies, is towards lower turnouts. For most elections, including this year on May 22nd, this won’t really matter. However the trick is to keep your flagship election turnout (in our case the NI Assembly election) well above 50%, which will then give the whole NI government structures legitimacy. However, our politicians should note that the signs aren’t good, and the trends aren’t hopeful, for the next Assembly election in 2016.


Belfast Telegraph – Youth Poll

There was extensive coverage all last week in the Belfast Telegraph of the exclusive Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk NI-Wide Young People’s poll.

As with all poll projects, the objective with the Belfast Telegraph ‘youth poll’ was to obtain a balanced view of Northern Ireland opinion, on this occasion within the 16-24 year-old age-group. To do this we endeavoured to ensure our opinion sample was balance across community (i.e. religious), social background, location, and gender. This approach allowed us to obtain an accurate and representative view of what the young people of Northern Ireland are really thinking about a range of current issues including politics, jobs, and their vision of the future.

Results, analysis, and commentary, of some of the key poll questions and issues can be found here:

Are Community Barriers coming down?
What young people think of our politicians
Different Protestant and Catholic views
Young Protestants are disillusioned


Belfast Telegraph Youth Poll – What do NI’s Youth think?

Next Week – beginning on Monday 7th April, the Belfast Telegraph will be publishing the results of their LucidTalk Northern Ireland – Wide Youth poll, along with full comment and analysis. The objective of the LucidTalk - Belfast Telegraph ‘youth poll’ was to obtain a balanced view of Northern Ireland opinion, on this occasion within the 16-24 year-old age-group. To achieve this, the LucidTalk opinion sample was balanced across community (i.e. religious), social background, location, and gender. This approach allowed the collation of a representative view of what the young people of Northern Ireland are really thinking about a range of current issues including politics, jobs, and their vision of the future.

In particular, the poll-project involved the direct ‘live’ participation of several youth groups, clubs, and associations across Northern Ireland, which allowed the members of these clubs and associations to ‘vote’ directly in the poll-project, via the LucidTalk ‘on-the-road’ polling station. This direct participation by the Youth organisations is great fun for the young people, as they complete the survey confidentially, seal it, and then place it in the LucidTalk Ballot Boxes, giving the feeling to the young people that they are taking part in a genuine democratic process, and that their views will really count.     

As well as the ‘direct contact’ youth association program, the LucidTalk poll-project included telephone and direct individual interviews. This combination of contact channels ensured that the widest possible range of views and opinions were collated, resulting in the most accurate possible data sample to be obtained, and the most accurate possible reflection of the current views of the young people of Northern Ireland. 

Some interesting trends have emerged, with many questions when analysed by religious background, showing key differences in attitudes between Protestants and Catholics. With poll results, one key way the pollsters work out trends and compare results between polls, is to work out + or – ‘ratings’ for the various questions. As an example, if we take the ‘How often would you meet someone from the other tradition’ question, we see this shows a +23 rating overall, showing that most young people (not all) feel they meet someone from the other tradition fairly often. It should be noted that + 23, is a reasonable positive score, but it is not overwhelming, and could not be described as excellent. However, if we analyse this question by religion (i.e. how our poll respondents defined their religion) we find that Catholics felt they met someone from the ‘other tradition’ more than Protestants by a factor of 6 to 4, and Protestants felt they didn’t meet someone from the ‘other tradition’ that often, by a factor of 2 to 1!   The ‘rating scores’ for all applicable questions will be reported in the Belfast Telegraph all next week. So keep a look out, as they provide interesting reading, and throw up some key questions about the future of Northern Ireland.

Full results, along with the detailed poll-project methodology, will be published on the LucidTalk web site week beginning 14th April.


LucidTalk launch Research Panels for 2014

LucidTalk have announced a program of research panels for 2014 covering detailed market research and polling of key groups making up NI society including: Business Leaders, Public Sector Managers, MLA’s and Councillors.

In summary, the schedule for the Research Panels is as follows:

- Northern Public Sector/Social Economy Research Panel (April 2014)
- Public Representatives (MLA and Councillor) Deep-Audit Research Panel (August 2014)
- Business Leaders (Private sector) Research Panel (September/October 2014)
-
Members of the NI Assembly (MLA’s) Research Panel (November 2014)

There are many advantages for organisation(s) to consider, in terms of taking part in one or more of these projects:

- Each Sponsor-Partner can contribute up to four questions for each of the Research Panels, with these questions being related to topics that the sponsor-partner wishes to research with the targeted audience e.g. MLA’s, Business leaders etc.
-
Provides the opportunity to obtain in-depth views from a particular sector regarding your organisation, and your organisations activities.
-
Promotes and advertises the organisation, and the organisations activities, to a specific sector of NI society e.g. MLA’s, Business leaders etc..
-
All Sponsor-Partners receive full reports, and analysis, of all results relating to their specific questions, as part of each Research Panel project.

For more information and program details see: LT- Research Panels 2014

If any organisation would like to discuss further, and receive details of costs for participation in the Research Panel Projects, then please call/contact LucidTalk at any time.


Alliance Party Conference – LucidTalk Fringe Event

LucidTalk will be exhibiting at the 2014 Alliance Party conference, which is being held in the La Mon Hotel, tomorrow, 22nd March 2014. So if you’re attending the conference, or just in the area, come along, and meet us on our exhibition stand.

In addition, LucidTalk in association with the Belfast Telegraph will be hosting a ‘fringe event’ at the conference on polling, and recent poll-projects. This will take place in the Glen Suite, La Mon Hotel, at 3.45pm.– see enclosed flyer for details. This fringe event is open to the public, and not just members or supporters of the Alliance party. So if you’re attending the conference, or just interested, or perhaps are in the area, then why not come along at 3.45pm on Saturday, to the Glen suite at 3.45pm, for what should be an enjoyable and informative event.

For further details see: Alliance Conference – LucidTalk Event

 


LucidTalk at the NI21 Conference – Saturday 16th November

LucidTalk will be exhibiting at the 2013 NI21 conference, being held in the Europa Hotel, Belfast, tomorrow, 16th November 2013. So if you’re attending the conference, or just in the area, come along, and meet us on our exhibition stand, and have a chat!

LucidTalk in association with the Belfast Telegraph will be hosting a ‘fringe event’ at the conference on polling, and recent poll-projects. This will take place in the Copenhagen 1 room, 2nd floor, Europa Hotel, on Saturday 16th November, at 1.15pm.– see enclosed flyer for details. This fringe event is open to the public, and not just members or supporters of NI21. So if you’re attending the conference, or just interested, or perhaps are in Belfast for some early Christmas shopping, then why not come along at 1.15pm on Saturday to room Copenhagen 1, at the Europa Hotel, for what should be an enjoyable and informative event.

LTBelTelFringeEvent-161113


LucidTalk at the SDLP Annual conference

LucidTalk will be exhibiting at the 2013 SDLP conference, being held in the Armagh City Hotel, Armagh, on the 8th and 9th November 2013. So if you’re attending the conference, or just in the area, come along, and meet us on our exhibition stand, and have a chat!

LucidTalk, along with the Belfast Telegraph, will also be hosting a ‘fringe event’ at the conference covering the recent Belfast Telegraph-LucidTalk poll, and polling in general. This will take place in the Middletown room, Armagh City Hotel, on Saturday 9th November, at 1pm.


Seminar – Belfast Telegraph/LucidTalk NI Wide Poll

LucidTalk and the Belfast Telegraph will be hosting a seminar to examine and explain the results of the recent LucidTalk NI Wide poll.

Starts 12.15pm,
Wednesday 30th October,
Belfast Telegraph offices, Royal Avenue, Belfast,
Lunch and refreshments will be provided,
All Welcome.


UUP must choose an option and stick to it – Bill White Blogs for Belfast Telegraph

Bill White guest blogs for the Belfast Telegraph about the recent UUP Annual conference.

Find it here. 


Belfast Telegraph NI Wide Poll Results

Please follow the link below for the results for the August 2013 LucidTalk-Belfast Telegraph poll.

BTPollAugust2013-DataReport-130923-PDF

Weighted results to follow in November. These have to been independently verified.

Seminar

LucidTalk would be pleased to answer any questions/queries regarding the poll project, and/or the poll results. LucidTalk will be hosting a seminar covering the poll-project, its results, and full analysis, at the end of November 2013, at the Innovation Centre, Northern Ireland Science Park, Belfast BT3 9DT. This seminar will cover: Detail of poll-project

read more…


LucidTalk Poll for the Belfast Telegraph

All this week the Belfast Telegraph are running commentary and analysis on the recent LucidTalk Northern Ireland wide poll.

Coverage can be found here http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/

The full data results for the poll will be available here from the 23rd of September


Opinion by Bill White: The DUP has a decision to make ahead of upcoming Euros

Well, a three-year period of elections, and election campaigns, is about to get underway. This all starts with the European parliament elections in May 2014, with Northern Ireland local government elections sometime next year as well – maybe on the same day as the Euro election.

This will be followed by the Westminster election in May 2015, and the NI Assembly election in 2016 – so get ready for plenty of electioneering, point scoring, and retreating into entrenched positions over the next three years.

The first, the Euro next May, has three seats up for grabs in a PR election, in one large Northern Ireland wide constituency.

It is certain that the DUP and Sinn Fein will win one seat each, but who will win the third seat? This comes down to the mix of candidates, and how many candidates to run in a PR-type election like the Euros is a key decision for the political parties.

read more…


Do we elect the Person or the Party?

See Bill White’s latest blog article on DebateNI, the Belfast Telegraph’s new on-line vehicle for politics and opinion in Northern Ireland. Bill looks at the old argument of whether an elected representative has the right to do what he or she thinks is correct, without regard to what political party that person stood for at the previous election. See what Bill says at: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/bill-white/do-we-elect-the-person-or-the-party-29424689.html – and please leave your views!


LucidTalk Audience-Response Polling system – Instantaneous Audience Polling at ‘Live events’

LucidTalk offer instantaneous audience polling at ‘Live’ events to carry out dynamic, ‘as it happens’, opinion polling. Similar to the ‘ask the audience’ feature on the famous TV show ‘Who wants to be a Millionaire’, the LucidTalk system uses compact hand-held devices (accommodating audiences of up to 300), to instantaneously collate opinions from a ‘live event’ audience. The poll results can be stored for subsequent analysis, or be instantly presented back to the audience to stimulate further debate. As well as the useful market research that LucidTalk audience response polling produces, the LucidTalk ‘live’ audience response systems also adds a Fun element to audience participation events.
read more…


Next Belfast Telegraph Northern Ireland (NI) – Wide poll-project – September 2013.

The next LucidTalk-Belfast Telegraph NI-wide poll-project will take place in September 2013. Polling will take place in late August and early September and cover a wide range of topics including politics, the economy, public services, and lifestyle. This will be one of the most comprehensive poll-projects ever undertaken in NI, and will provide an accurate representation of current NI opinion.

The Belfast Telegraph will provide a full weeks coverage of all the poll results starting Monday 16th September, with accompanying analysis and commentary. Watch for further details shortly….


Mid Ulster – Predictably Dull

Political commentator Alex Kane looks at the forthcoming Mid Ulster By Election and predicts the impact of the campaign on the Northern Irish public.

 
Read more..


LucidTalk Poll shows 79% support for Integrated Education

The poll, conducted by LucidTalk on behalf of the Integrated Education Fund and published in todays Belfast Telegraph, shows overwhelming public support for Integrated Education.

More information is available on the IEF Website


Election Pacts commentary article in Belfast Telegraph by LucidTalk MD, Bill White

It’s always easy for political parties to aim for what they see as the easy solution of election pacts, and so-called ‘unity candidates’, at elections. However this commentasry article from LucidTalk MD Bill White says that pacts and unity candidates may not turn-out to be the easy solution that a lot of political activists think them to be!

This commentary article appeared in the Belfast Telegraph – 18th January 2013.

Read the article here


LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph November 2012 Poll

Documents based around the three recent Belfast Telegraph / Lucid Talk polls are available in PDF format below.

Belfast City Airport Belfast Telegraph Poll Belfast Telegraph / LucidTalk Poll 2012 Integrated Education Fund Belfast Telegraph Poll

Latest LucidTalk NI-Wide Poll now in Belfast Telegraph

Results from LucidTalk’s latest NI-Wide poll will be published and reviewed in the Belfast Telegraph over the next several days. Subjects include Abortion, and Christmas spending – covered in today’s edition of the paper, and from tomorrow and into next week politics, education, and travel issues. Full Poll results will be on the LucidTalk web site from Friday 7th December.


Videos from Seminar on Presidential Election

Bill White from LucidTalk explains the basics of polling

LucidTalks resident Psephologist Gerry Lynch discusses the presidential campaign

Walter Russell-Mead
Professor of Foriegn affairs and Humanities


Obama Wins US Election – Belfast Telegraph article

See Bill White’s (LucidTalk Managing Director) review of the recent US election in last week’s Belfast Telegraph: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/romneys-early-switch-to-right-was-the-wrong-tactic-16235231.html.

LucidTalk pollsters Bill White and Gerry Lynch predicted an Obama win from over six months ago and LucidTalk’s position never altered from that prediction. In fact, in association with our Ireland polling partners: Public Opinion Ireland (POI) LucidTalk predicted the exact final result from the US presidential Electoral College 10 hours before the final result was known – apart from only one state Florida, were we had predicted a Romney win!


British Polling Council

LucidTalk have become Full members of the British Polling Council (BPC).

LucidTalk’s membership application has been accepted by the British Polling Council, and they will be listed as Full members of the BPC by 31st May 2012.

read more…


Belfast Telegraph – LucidTalk Partnership

LucidTalk are now in partnership with the Belfast Telegraph.

A Major NI wide poll will be carried out in April in association with the Belfast Telegraph.
LucidTalk also carry out Mini-Surveys to provide immediate ‘snapshots’ of Opinion.

read more…


LucidTalk Seminar at Belfast Telegraph

LucidTalk host Seminar at Belfast Telegraph to announce forthcoming Northern Ireland wide Poll

On Thursday 10th May LucidTalk hosted a seminar at the Belfast Telegraph to announce their joint polling project with the Newspaper.

read more…


LucidTalk Welcomes Gerry Lynch to the Team

Bill White, founder of LucidTalk, has welcomed Belfast-based election and polling expert Gerry Lynch to the LucidTalk team.

read more…


Dissatisfaction with Stormont shown to be rife

A survey of more than a thousand Northern Ireland voters has revealed a high level of disillusionment and dissatisfaction with the current Stormont government.

read more…


Irish unity no longer seen as a pressing issue

Irish unity is no longer viewed by many in Northern Ireland as a pressing political issue, according to a new survey.

read more…


A speedy overview of LucidTalk’s Northern Ireland Wide Poll results

A speedy overview of LucidTalk’s Northern Ireland Wide Poll results

The recent LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph Opinion Poll has thrown up some rather interesting information;

read more…