LT forecast NI Westminster election to 1% accuracy

LucidTalk carried out their main Northern Ireland (NI) pre-election poll 27th November-30th November 2019, and based on this, forecast the vote shares that would be obtained by each of the political parties contesting the NI Westminster election on 12th December. This turned out to be a tremendous polling performance as those Political Party vote-share forecasts turned out to be accurate within an error of less than 1%. – see below for details. These forecasts were covered widely in the local NI media including in the Irish News, the Sunday Times, and on U105 radio. However, as well as the vote-share forecasts, the poll also covered what issues NI people were thinking about in terms of the e


LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc. Here we present the report from our main pre-Westminster Election 2019 NI-Wide Opinion Panel Tracker Poll (poll period: 27th-30th November) – which researched NI representative opinions and views regarding a) NI Westminster election – Political Party vote-share b) LT Seat Predictor table – showing win probabilities for each seat c) Election issues – what are they? d) Outlook for NI – What do people think? This poll-project was run in associati

“Remain United” NI Poll No. 2

LucidTalk were recently commissioned by Electoral Calculus and ‘Remain United’ to conduct a Northern Ireland (NI) poll-survey researching vo

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