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LT NI Autumn Tracker Poll




LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis.


Here we present the results and report from our Autumn 2020 (quarterly) NI-Wide Opinion Panel ‘Tracker’ Poll (poll-period: 2nd October - 5th October) – which researched NI representative opinions and views regarding Political party support, Political leader ratings, Coronavirus issues, and views regarding Brexit and NI. This project was run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH.


The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH, and were also covered on U105 radio – see below for links to the coverage.


The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this Autumn 2020 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,093 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,961 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. 

Autumn – October 2020 (Poll Period: 2nd – 5th October 2020) NI Opinion Panel ‘Tracker’ Poll: ..here are the poll questions from the project, and the main results graphic for each poll question:

(a) QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE? - Results: CLICK HERE

QUESTION 1: Published results graphic for Question 1 - Results: CLICK HERE

(b) QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following NI political party leaders in terms of their overall performance since the start of 2020? - Results: CLICK HERE

QUESTION 2: Actual NI political party leaders ratings calculated from main Question 2 results - Results: CLICK HERE

QUESTION 2: Top five NI Political Leader – performance scores analysed by Unionists, Nationalists/Republicans, Alliance/Green/Others - Results: CLICK HERE

(c) QUESTION 3: There have been recent incidents when senior Sinn Féin and DUP representatives have breached Covid emergency guidelines and rules e.g. Sinn Féin leaders’ attendance at the funeral of Bobby Storey, and Sammy Wilson travelling on the London Tube without a face mask. Do you think these incidents will have any impact, good or bad, on the image and future electoral prospects of either party?

- Results: CLICK HERE

(d) QUESTION 4: Coronavirus issues - Which of the following worries you more? - Results: CLICK HERE

(e) QUESTION 5: Do you think pubs, bars, restaurants, and other hospitality venues closing at 11pm in NI as per the recent NI Government regulations will reduce, increase, or make no difference to the spread of the Coronavirus in NI?

- Results: CLICK HERE

(f) QUESTION 6: If as has been widely suggested as part of Brexit there has to be a trade-off between a Brexit border in Ireland between NI and the Republic of Ireland and or a Brexit border in the Irish sea between NI and Great Britain. Which would you prefer? - Results: CLICK HERE

The poll question detail, and the technical polling information, are shown on each of the enclosed results graphics i.e. (a) to (f) above.

For the Full Results Reportincludes project background, methodology, and all results, inc. the key demographic results: CLICK HERE

Methodology

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 2nd to 5th October 2020. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,376 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland(NI). 1,961 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, after a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 major NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 1,961 response dataset was/is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. See enclosed reports for more information regarding project methodology.

Autumn 2020 (poll period: 2nd – 5th October 2020) NI Opinion Panel ‘Tracker’ Poll - For the Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format)

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see attached description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Constitutional Position (Unionist, Nationalist, etc.), Community (Protestant, R. Catholic, etc.), and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

Media Coverage

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Brexit and the Border: CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Analysis of poll results: CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Coronavirus issues: CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Coronavirus issues: CLICK HERE

LucidTalk - Professional Credentials: LucidTalk (LT) is a member of all professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).

LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For further information, please contact:

Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk

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