LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis.
Here we present the results and report from a national UK-Wide ‘State of the UK-Union’ poll-project run in association with Poll Cos Panelbase and YouGov. LucidTalk ran the NI-Wide Opinion Panel ‘Tracker’ Poll for this project (poll-period: 15th – 18th January 2021) – which researched NI representative opinions and views regarding NI constitutional issues, NI Border poll, Brexit, and related issues.
The poll results were reported extensively in the SUNDAY TIMES (24th January 2021), and were also covered on U105 radio – see below for links to the coverage.
The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this January 2021 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,427 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 2,390 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
January 2021 (Poll Period: 15th – 18th January 2021) NI Opinion Panel SUNDAY TIMES ‘State of the UK-Union’ Poll: ..here are the key poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for each poll question – all other poll questions results are in the data-tables report (link below):
QUESTION 1: If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be... – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE – NI Results (excluding Don’t Knows/Not Sure): CLICK HERE – NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (18-44 Age-Group only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (45+ Age-Group only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (Non-Voters only): CLICK HERE
QUESTION 2: In principle, do you think there should or should not be a Referendum (i.e. ‘a Border Poll”) on whether Northern Ireland stays in the UK or joins a united Ireland - at some point in the next five years? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE – NI Results (Unionists only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (Nationalists/Republicans only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others only): CLICK HERE
QUESTION 3: How pleased or upset would you be if…
Scotland left the UK and became an independent country?
England left the UK and became an independent country?
Wales left the UK and became an independent country?
Northern Ireland left the UK and became part of a United Ireland?
– MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 4: How likely or unlikely do you think it is that within the next ten years…
Scotland will leave the UK and become an independent country?
Wales will leave the UK and become an independent country?
Northern Ireland will leave the UK and become an independent country?
– MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 5: IDENTITY: Which, if any, of the following best describes the way you think of yourself?…
– MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 6: CORONAVIRUS: Do you think Northern Ireland would have responded to Coronavirus better or worse as part of a united Ireland? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 7: CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE: Should decisions about how to handle the coronavirus pandemic mostly be made by the UK government in London, the Irish government in Dublin, or should they mostly be made by the Northern Ireland (NI) government in Belfast? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 8: BREXIT: If the 2016 referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (EU) was being held now, how would you vote? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE – NI Results (Unionists only): CLICK HERE – NI Results (Nationalists/Republicans only): CLICK HERE QUESTION 9: BREXIT: If there was a referendum now on whether the United Kingdom should or should not join the European Union (EU), how would you vote? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE QUESTION 11: Do you think Northern Ireland will be financially better or worse off as a result of the UK leaving the EU, or will it be much the same? – MAIN NI RESULTS: CLICK HERE Results for Questions 10, and 12, as well as full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results: Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format).
Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see attached description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (Protestant, R. Catholic, etc.), and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.
Methodology
Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 15th to 18th January 2021. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,376 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 2,390 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, after a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 2,390 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. See enclosed reports for more information regarding project methodology.
Media Coverage
SUNDAY TIMES – ‘Union in crisis’ (behind paywall): CLICK HERE
SUNDAY TIMES – ‘NI backs border poll within 5 years’ (behind paywall): CLICK HERE
SUNDAY TIMES – ‘No Border poll yet, but…’ (behind paywall): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Prof Jon Tonge re. NI Border polling: CLICK HERE
IRISH NEWS – ‘Support for a united Ireland…’: CLICK HERE
IRISH NEWS – ‘Poll support for unity Referendum…’: CLICK HERE
LucidTalk - Professional Credentials: LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).
LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
For further information, please contact:
Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk