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LT NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Autumn 2021



LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis.


Here we present the results and report from our regular quarterly NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Autumn 2021, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions included political-party support, political leader ratings, COVID issues, and Climate change. Poll-period was 5th – 8th November 2021, and 3,298 responses were used in the final weighted, NI representative sample for the base NI Political Party question.


The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (13th November and 15th November 2021), and were also covered on U105 radio – see below for links to some of the media coverage.


The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this November 2021 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 4,089 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 3,298 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.


LT ‘Autumn’ November 2021 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 5th – 8th November 2021): ...here are the poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for the first two poll questions i.e. the main poll questions –


QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE

POLL ‘TRACKER’ RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following political party leaders in terms of their overall performance in the last few months?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

Political Leader Ratings: CLICK HERE

Bad/Very Bad scores – analysed by NI political groupings: CLICK HERE


Full project report inc. project background, methodology, and all results graphics (Total results - 8 poll questions, and main demographics): CLICK HERE


Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by:

Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, NI constitutional position, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.

Methodology


Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 5th to 8th November 2021. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,816 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,512 full responses were considered in terms of the final results – 3,298 responses for Question 1. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 3,298 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.

Media Coverage


BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen – Main article): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Prof. Jon Tonge): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Adrian Rutherford – Climate change): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Allison Morris – PSNI at 20): CLICK HERE

U105 RADIO REPORT (Frank Mitchell – Podcast No. 4872): CLICK HERE

..and several other articles and commentaries can be found on the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website.


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials: LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).

LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For further information, please contact:

Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk


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