top of page

News

LucidTalk – Westminster Election Poll 3 - June 2024



LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our Poll No. 3 (of 3) – WESTMINSTER ELECTION 20204, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered Political-Party support – specifically for the Westminster elections, Who would make best Prime-Minister, and ‘What do you think the turnout will be?’. Poll-period was 24th – 25th June 2024, 3,859 responses were received, and 1,049/1,051 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (29th June), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media.

 

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 16,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,859 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,049/1,051 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.

 

LT ‘NI Westminster Election 2024 – Poll 3’ NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 24th – 25th June 2024):

...here are the results, and results-graphics, from the main “‘Who are you going to vote for?” poll question…


QUESTION 1: WESTMINSTER ELECTION: At the NI Westminster Election on 4th July which political party/candidate do you plan to vote for?   

Full NI representative results (inc. comparisons to 2019 Westminster election results, to LT NI Westminster Polls 1 and 2, and the LT Spring24 NI Assembly election poll results): CLICK HERE

Pre-Westminster Election Poll 3 (of 3) – MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE

 

Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE

- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (religion), NI Political group, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).

NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.

Plus, any conclusions drawn from any demographic/cross-break analyses should be treated as indicative only, as they are subject to a higher margin of error than the main NI-Wide poll results which are NI representative to within a +/-2.3% error.

 

Methodology

 

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 24th to 25th June 2024. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (16,000+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,859 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This produced a final 1,049/1,051 response dataset which is demographically representative sample of NI - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.


Media Coverage


..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll, and previous LucidTalk polls, can be found on the LucidTalk section of the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website.


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:


LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and LT (and/or its officers) are members of the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.

LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.


All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).


LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org


For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545

Comments


bottom of page