News

LT NI ‘Tracker’ poll – April 2022


LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., on a quarterly basis.


Here we present the results and report from our LAST pre NI Assembly election NI ‘Tracker’ poll – April 2022, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. There were two key poll questions (a) Who are you going to vote for as a first preference, and (b) Who are you going to vote for as a 2nd preference and beyond? Poll-period was 22nd-25thApril 2022, and 1,708 responses were used in the final weighted, NI representative sample.

The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (29th April 2022), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media – see below for links to some of the media coverage.

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this April 2022 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 3,699 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,708 full responses were used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.

LT ‘Pre NI Assembly Election’ April 2022 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 22nd – 25th April 2022): ...here are the key questions from the project, and the main results graphics for the first two poll questions:

QUESTION 1:

At the NI Assembly Election on 5th May 2022, who are you planning to vote for as a FIRST PREFERENCE?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE

POLL ‘TRACKER’ RESULTS GRAPHIC – UNIONIST POLITICAL PARTIES: CLICK HERE

POLL ‘TRACKER’ RESULTS GRAPHIC – NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN POLITICAL PARTIES: CLICK HERE

POLL ‘TRACKER’ RESULTS GRAPHIC – ALLIANCE/GREEN/PBP POLITICAL PARTIES: CLICK HERE


For the full project report inc. project background, methodology, and all results graphics (inc. 2nd preference vote analyses for each political party): CLICK HERE

Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report:

CLICK HERE - (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, NI constitutional position, Community (religion), and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC). LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.

NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.


Methodology


Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 22nd to 25th April 2022. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,816 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 1,708 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 1,708 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.


Media Coverage


BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen – Main article): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Rebecca Black): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Prof. Jon Tonge): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Allan Preston): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White): CLICK HERE

...and several other commentaries can be found on the BELFAST TELEGRAPH and other media websites.


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:


LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).


LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545

- Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk