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LucidTalk NI ‘Tracker’ Poll - Spring 2024


LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our regular quarterly NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Spring 2024, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered Political-Party support – separately for both the Westminster and NI Assembly elections, Political Leader ratings, Tactical voting, Wallace Thompson, and more. Poll-period was 10th – 13th May 2024, 3,316 responses were received, and 1,021 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (18th – 21st May), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media – see below for links to some of the media coverage.

 

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 16,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,316 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,021 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.


LT ‘Spring’ 2024 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 10th – 13th May 2024):

...here are the results and results-graphics from the two main poll questions (a) 'NI Political-Party vote’ poll question i.e. the main poll question, and (b) Political-Leader performance ratings…


QUESTION 1: WESTMINSTER ELECTION: If a NI Westminster Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for?  

Full NI representative results (inc. comparisons to 2019 Westminster election results, and LT Spring24 NI Assembly election poll results): CLICK HERE 


QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE

RESULTS ‘Tracker’ GRAPHIC (this poll and comparison to previous polls): CLICK HERE

 

QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following political party leaders in terms of their overall performance in the last few months?

Full NI representative results – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE

Full NI representative results – UK and Ireland Political Leaders: CLICK HERE

MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC – Political Leader Ratings: CLICK HERE

 

Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE

- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (religion), NI Political group, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).

NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.


Methodology

 

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 10th to 13th May 2024. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (16,000+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,316 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This produced a final 1,021 response dataset which is demographically representative sample of NI - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.

 

Media Coverage


BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Political-Party support - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Garrett Hargan: Election Pacts – Are the wanted?): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Adrian Rutherford: Wallace Thompson – Is he right?): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Liam Tunney: Immigration checks at Irish Sea Border): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Claire Williamson: Michelle O’Neill & Emma Little-Pengelly): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White (LucidTalk – MD): DUP election results): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Ciaran Dunbar: Podcast - with Alex Kane, Ursula Savage, and Bill White): CLICK HERE

..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll, and previous LucidTalk polls can be found on the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website.


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:


LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and LT (and/or its officers) are members of the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.

LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.


All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).


LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org


For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545

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