LucidTalk (LT) run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel ‘Tracker Polls’ (usually on a quarterly basis) to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our Summer 2026 Poll, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered Political-Party support – specifically for a NI Assembly Election, Trust in NI Political Parties, the ‘Jeffrey Donaldson situation’, Immigration, Andy Burnham as the new UK Prime Minister, and Casement Park. Poll-period was 17th July – 19th July, 3,043 responses were received, and 1,050/1,051 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (from 25th July), and were also covered on U105 radio, BBC Radio Ulster, and other media.
The polls are regular ‘Tracker’ polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 16,900+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,043 full responses were received. Then, after data auditing to ensure: (a) ‘one person-one vote’ responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, – 1,050/1,051 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
LT NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Spring 2026 (Poll Period: 17th – 19th July 2026):
…here are the results, and results-graphics, from the main “Who are you going to vote for?” and the up-to-date “Political-Party Poll Trackers” since the 2022 NI Assembly election…
(NB To view full-size graphics – click on the image)
QUESTION 1: NI ASSEMBLY ELECTION: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow, which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?
Full NI representative results (inc. comparisons to the LT Spring 2026 poll results):
Full NI representative results NI Assembly Election Poll – MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC:
QUESTION – POLL TRACKER: All LucidTalk quarterly polls since the 2022 NI Assembly Election
LAST SIX-POLLS POLL TRACKER (NI Assembly Election 2022 Results + last six quarterly LT polls):
FULL POLL TRACKER (NI Assembly Election 2022 Results + ALL LT polls since): TO BE UPDATED
DATA-TABLES REPORT – Summer 2026 (Poll Period: 17th – 19th July 2026):
Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE – (will appear in the centre, or at the top-right/bottom left, in excel/csv format). Within the Data-Tables each poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet – For each poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed Data-Tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election – Past-Vote, NI Voting Block (Unionists, Nationalists/Republicans, etc.), and Community (religion).
The publication of these data-tables is a requirement/regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).
NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or ‘drill-downs’ into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution. Plus, any conclusions drawn from any demographic/cross-break analyses should be treated as indicative only, as they are subject to a higher margin of error than the main NI-Wide poll results, which are NI representative to +/-2.3%.
Methodology
Polling was carried out online from 17th to 19th July 2026 by Belfast-based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (16,900+ members), which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,043 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine ‘one-person, one-vote’ responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This produced a final 1,050/1,051 response dataset, which is a demographically representative sample of NI – producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For details of the project methodology, see the enclosed report.
Media Coverage
..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll, and previous LucidTalk polls, can be found on the LucidTalk section of the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website inc.
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Review of LucidTalk Summer26 poll): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: DUP in danger-zone electorally): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Adrian Rutherford: Immigration checks at the border): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: DUP voters and Jeffrey Donaldson’s ‘Double Life’): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (David Graham: Divisions in Unionism): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Casement Park and Sinn Fein): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White: DUP Trust problem and Assembly seats): CLICK HERE
IRISH NEWS (Alex Kane: Unionism at the crossroads): CLICK HERE
+ SLUGGER O’TOOLE (Michael Hehir: General analysis of the LT Spring26 poll): CLICK HERE
Plus a Belfast Telegraph podcast re. the poll, plus analysis and commentary – podcast hosted by Ciaran Dunbar (Belfast Telegraph), with Suzanne Breen (Political Editor – Belfast Telegraph): CLICK HERE
LucidTalk – Professional Credentials:
LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and LT (and/or its officers) are members of the UK Market Research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC is the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.
LucidTalk is the only NI/Ireland-based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.
All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).
LucidTalk abides by the regulations of the BPC – see: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545
Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk
