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LT NI Quarterly 'Tracker' Poll – August 2019: NI Westminster Election Seat Forecast Model


LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc. The most recent LT poll-project was the August 2019 NI-Wide Opinion Panel Tracker Poll – which researched NI representative opinions and views on (a) a NI-only ‘Backstop’ arrangement as part of Brexit, (b) How do you think the UK government are doing with the Brexit negotiations, and (c) NI Westminster election individual seat forecasts? The Poll results report for (a) and (b) is posted as the most recent News entry on this website. Here we present the poll results report for (c) the NI Westminster election individual seat forecast poll-project. This poll-project was run in association with the SUNDAY TIMES newspaper, and U105 radio. The results were published in the SUNDAY TIMES, in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH, and in other media – see below for links to the coverage. In addition, the poll results have been used by ELECTORAL CALCULUS as part of their latest Westminster election seat forecast models. See below for the link to the specific NI forecast.

Background

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland online Opinion Panel (now over 12,000 members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, political position, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this August 2019 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,302 full responses were received. Then for this Westminster election seat model forecast a NI representative sample of 2,278 responses were used to determine the final results - researched and weighted to be a balanced, robust, and accurate sample of NI opinion.

AUGUST 2019 NI Opinion Panel 'Tracker' Poll - NI Westminster Election Seat Model Results Report: CLICK HERE

Methodology

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online over a period of four days from 9th to 12th August 2019. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (12,762 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, political position, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). For this Westminster Election an MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) model was used. This model is similar to YouGov’s MRP model which was very accurate in predicting the 2017 UK general election - see front page article in the TIMES published on 31st May 2017 (9 days before the 2017 general election): CLICK HERE

Indeed, because Northern Ireland is a smaller population area than the whole of the UK, the results from this Northern Ireland (NI) MRP poll can be considered to be even more accurate considering the relative sample sizes related to each territory i.e. GB vs NI.

2,278 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, and as input to the MRP model. This was after a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to all the major NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. The MRP model produced individual NI Westminster seat forecasts - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-4.7% at 95% confidence. See enclosed reports for more information regarding project methodology.

Media Coverage

Poll-Results review and analysis in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH: CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and interview on U105 radio: CLICK HERE

ELECTORAL CALCULUS – Poll results and NI seat forecast: CLICK HERE

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