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LTs MAIN PRE-ELECTION POLL - RESULTS


LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc.

Here we present the report from our main pre-Westminster Election 2019 NI-Wide Opinion Panel Tracker Poll (poll period: 27th-30th November) – which researched NI representative opinions and views regarding

a) NI Westminster election – Political Party vote-share

b) LT Seat Predictor table – showing win probabilities for each seat

c) Election issues – what are they?

d) Outlook for NI – What do people think?

This poll-project was run in association with the SUNDAY TIMES newspaper, and U105 radio. The results were published in the SUNDAY TIMES, in the IRISH NEWS, and covered on U105 radio – see below for links to the coverage.

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000 members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this November 2019 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,422 full responses were received. LT then constructed a NI representative 2,318 sample of responses which were used to determine the final results - researched and weighted to be a balanced, robust, and accurate sample of NI opinion.

November 2019 (27th-30th Nov) NI Opinion Panel ‘pre-election’ Poll

Full Results Report: CLICK HERE

And here are two key results from the project - also now (c) comparing the LT pre-election poll to the actual election results:

(a) NI vote preference for GE 2019: CLICK HERE

(b) NI vote preference for GE 2019 – excluding Don’t Knows/ NVs etc: CLICK HERE

(c) NI vote preference for GE 2019 – 'before and after' i.e. comparing LTs pre-election poll to the actual result: CLICK HERE

..and LucidTalk ran a post-programme poll following BBC1 NI’s LEADERS DEBATE PROGRAMME (BBC1 NI – 10th December 2019, 9am) – Here are the results:

  1. CLICK HERE

  2. CLICK HERE

Methodology

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online over a period of three days from 21st to 23rd October 2019. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,074 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland(NI). 2,318 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, after a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to all the major NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 2,318 response dataset was/is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.6% at 95% confidence. See enclosed reports for more information regarding project methodology.

November 2019 (27th-30th Nov) NI Opinion Panel ‘pre-election’ Poll. - For the Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE

Media Coverage

Poll-Results review and analysis in the SUNDAY TIMES:

CLICK HERE

Poll-Results review and analysis in the IRISH NEWS:

CLICK HERE

and

CLICK HERE

Poll-Results broadcast interview and analysis on U105 Radio:

CLICK HERE (Review list for podcast - No. 4602)

Poll-Results broadcast interview and analysis on BBC NI Radio - Talkback:

CLICK HERE

LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules:

British Polling Council

For further information, please contact:

Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk

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