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LT BBC NI Spotlight poll-project – Northern Ireland (NI) and Republic of Ireland (ROI)



LucidTalk were recently commissioned to run an all-Ireland poll-project (both NI and ROI) for the BBC NI ‘Spotlight’ programme – broadcast on 20th April 2021. The poll-projects (NI and ROI) were run jointly by LucidTalk and Dublin based ‘Ireland Thinks’. The project was targeted to gauge and estimate NI and ROI public opinion on a range of issues and topics inc.: Brexit, NI Border poll timing, NI Border poll views, NI Protocol, NI and the union in 10, 25 years time, and more…


The poll results were also reported on the BBC NI programme ‘the View’ on 22nd April, and the results were also extensively covered in other media - see below for links to some of the media coverage.

Here we present the results and reports from this project. The main poll design, field research, and analysis, for both polls (NI and ROI), took place in the period: 5th - 15th April 2021. NI Poll: 2,845 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, and ROI Poll: 1,088 responses were used for the ROI final weighted ROI representative sample.


LT and Ireland Thinks BBC NI Spotlight NI and ROI ‘Tracker’ polls: ..here are the main poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for each poll question –


NI POLL – All Results:

QUESTION 1: Northern Ireland is marking the centenary of its formation this summer. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following regarding the centenary Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 2: NI’s history has been marked by periods of violence and instability, but the centenary falls 23 years after the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following...

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 3: Should a border poll to determine whether NI remains part of the UK be held within the next 5 years?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (DUP VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Sinn Féin VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 4: If a Northern Ireland NI border poll was held TODAY how would you vote?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (exc. Don’t Knows/Not Sures): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (CONSTITUTIONAL NEUTRAL VOTERS e.g. Alliance/Green/Others ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (SDLP VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (18-44 YEARS VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (45+ YEARS VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

See full project data-tables report (link below) for DUP, Unionists, Sinn Féin, Nationalist/Republicans analyses etc.


QUESTION 5: Do you believe the UK’s trade protocol with the EU (the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol), which requires checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea from Great Britain, should be scrapped?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 6: Northern Ireland (NI) members of the NI Assembly (MLAs) will vote on whether NI stays in the EU single market in 3 years’ time. How should they vote?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 7: Has the UK’s exit from the EU changed your mind on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE (inc. Unionist, Nationalist/Republicans, Alliance/Green/Others analyses)

QUESTION 8: Some suggest that, in the event of a united Ireland, there would need to be radical changes to accommodate the whole island. Please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following...

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (DUP VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Sinn Féin VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 9: Do you believe Northern Ireland will be part of the UK... (in 10 years, 25 years,.. etc.)

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 10: If Scotland votes for independence in the next 5 years, what impact do you think this will have on Northern Ireland's position within the United Kingdom?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


ROI POLL – Key Results:

QUESTION 3: Should a border poll to determine whether NI remains part of the UK be held within the next 5 years?

Full ROI representative results: CLICK HERE

QUESTION 4: If a Northern Ireland NI border poll was held TODAY how would you vote?

Full ROI representative results: CLICK HERE

– ROI Results (exc. Don’t Knows/Not Sures): CLICK HERE

QUESTION 9: Do you believe Northern Ireland will be part of the UK... (in 10 years, 25 years, etc.)

Full ROI representative results: CLICK HERE


In addition, all results graphics, plus project background and methodology, are in the full project report: CLICK HERE


Full results, project background and methodology, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results reports:

NORTHERN IRELAND (NI) DATA-TABLE RESULTS: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format).

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND (ROI) DATA-TABLE RESULTS: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI or ROI Residence Area (see attached description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote (NI poll), 2020 ROI Election - Past-Vote (ROI poll), NI constitutional position (NI poll), Community (Protestant, R. Catholic, etc.), and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote (NI poll).

______________________________________________________________


Methodology

NI Poll: the poll targeted the established LT Northern Ireland online Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this BBC NI ‘Tracker’ poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,932 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 2,845 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.5% at 95% confidence.

ROI Poll: the poll targeted the established ‘Ireland Thinks’ 30,000 member ROI online Opinion Panel. 1,137 full responses were received, then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative ROI sample, - 1,088 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative ROI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing ROI opinion to within an error of +/-2.5% at 95% confidence.

Main Media Coverage


BBC NI Spotlight programme: CLICK HERE

BBC NI ‘The View’ programme: CLICK HERE

BBC News Report of poll results: CLICK HERE

DAILY EXPRESS: CLICK HERE

IRISH NEWS – Suzanne McGonagle: CLICK HERE

IRISH NEWS - Suzanne McGonagle: CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Suzanne Breen: CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH – Christopher Leebody: CLICK HERE


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials: LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market Research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).


LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk



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