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LT NI quarterly ‘Tracker’ Poll – Winter 2021



LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a wide range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis.


Here we present the results and report from our regular quarterly NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Winter 2021, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions included political-party support, political leader ratings, NI protocol, and will NI still be part of the UK-Union in 2050? Poll-period was 22nd – 25th January 2021, and 2,295 responses were used in the final weighted, NI representative sample.


The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (1st and 2nd February 2021), and were also covered on U105 radio – see below for links to some of the media coverage.


The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 13,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this January 2021 NI Tracker poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to participate, and 2,467 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 2,295 full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results presented are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.


LT ‘Winter’ January 2021 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 22nd – 25th January 2021): ..here are the poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for each poll question -

QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following political party leaders in terms of their overall performance in the last few months?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

Political Leader Ratings: CLICK HERE

Bad/Very Bad scores – analysed by NI political groupings: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 3: Has the Stormont Executive helped or hindered Northern Ireland’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 4: If and when you are offered a Coronavirus vaccine – will you take it?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 5: In the longer term, how do you think the ‘NI Protocol’ will affect Northern Ireland’s (NI) position in the UK?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (DUP VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Sinn Féin VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


QUESTION 6: Northern Ireland celebrates its centenary in 2021. Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 30 years time i.e. in 2050?

Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE

– NI Results (UNIONIST VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (NATIONALIST/REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE

– NI Results (Alliance/Green/Others VOTERS ONLY): CLICK HERE


Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE - (will appear at bottom left in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see attached description within the enclosed data-tables results report), 2017 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, NI constitutional position, Community (Protestant, R. Catholic, etc.), and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

______________________________________________________________


Methodology


Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 22nd to 25th January 2021. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (13,376 members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 2,295 full responses were considered in terms of the final results, after a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 2,295 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. See enclosed reports for more information regarding project methodology.


Media Coverage


BELFAST TELEGRAPH - ‘Editorial’ (behind paywall): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH - ‘DUP support drops in poll’ (behind paywall): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH - Bill White - Commentary (behind paywall): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH - Suzanne Breen - Re. DUP (behind paywall): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH - Alex Kane - Questions for DUP (behind paywall): CLICK HERE

+ several other commentaries can be found on the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website.


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials: LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).

LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its rules: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For further information, please contact:

Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545 - Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk

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