LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our regular quarterly NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Summer 2023, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered political-party support, political leader ratings, Windsor framework, DUP and the office of Deputy First Minister, and Water charges. Poll-period was 11th – 14th August 2023, 2,950 responses were received, and 1,047 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (19th August – 23rd August), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media – see below for links to some of the media coverage.
The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 15,600+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 2,950 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,047 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
LT ‘Summer’ 2023 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 11th – 14th August 2023): ...here are the poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for the first two poll questions i.e. the main poll questions –
QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?
Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE
MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE
RESULTS ‘Tracker’ GRAPHIC (this poll and comparison to previous polls): CLICK HERE
QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following political party leaders in terms of their overall performance in the last few months?
Full NI representative results – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC – Political Leader Ratings: CLICK HERE
Good/Very Good scores analysed by NI political groupings – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
Bad/Very Bad scores analysed by NI political groupings – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
Full project report inc. project background, methodology, and all results graphics (Total results - 7 poll questions, and main demographics): CLICK HERE
Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE
- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).
Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (religion), NI Political group, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.
The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).
NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.
Methodology
Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 11th to 14th August 2023. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (15,600+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 2,950 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 1,047 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.
Media Coverage
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Political-Party support - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: DUP boycott of Stormont - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: PSNI and Chief Constable - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Ciaran Barnes: Bonfires and Flags - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Editorial: NI Revenue raising, Water Charges - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White: DUP boycott of Stormont - Commentary): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Allison Morris: DUP needs to set out strategy – inc. Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Andrew Madden: Interview with Gordon Lyons re. ‘consistent’ DUP stance): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Andrew Madden: Interview with Doug Beattie re. Unionist concerns): CLICK HERE
..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll can be found on the
BELFAST TELEGRAPH, and other media websites.
BELFAST NEWSLETTER (Philip Bradfield: Unionist opinion - NI Protocol/Windsor Framework): CLICK HERE
The (Irish) INDEPENDENT (Review of main poll results): CLICK HERE
IRISH NEWS (Suzanne McGonagle: Poll results report and analysis): CLICK HERE
LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:
LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.
LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.
All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).
LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545
Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk