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What does Northern Ireland think of the ‘Windsor Framework’?


LucidTalk recently ran an ‘LT Special‘ poll to gauge a representative Northern Ireland (NI) view re. the UK government and the European Commission recently announced agreement, the ‘Windsor Framework’, which contains various measures designed to address issues and concerns regarding the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.


Here we present the results and report from this poll, which was run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll-period was 3rd – 5th March 2023, and 3,409 responses were received, and 1,050 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (11th March 2023), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media – see below for links to some of the media coverage.


The poll was taken with the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 14,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,409 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,050 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.


LT ‘Special’ 2023 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 3rd – 5th March 2023): ...here are the main results graphics for the Two poll questions i.e. the main poll questions –

QUESTION 1: NI PROTOCOL - WINDSOR FRAMEWORK: If there was a Northern Ireland (NI) referendum today on the UK-EU 'Windsor Framework' NI protocol agreement, how would you vote?

Full NI representative results – + analysed by Unionists, Nats/Republicans, Alliance/Green/Others: CLICK HERE

Full NI representative results – UNIONISTS ONLY, + analysed by DUP, UUP, and TUV voters only: CLICK HERE


QUESTION 2: NI PROTOCOL - WINDSOR FRAMEWORK: Should the DUP accept the UK-EU 'Windsor Framework' NI Protocol agreement (27th February 2023), and re-enter the Stormont government institutions?

Full NI representative results – + analysed by Unionists, Nats/Republicans, Alliance/Green/Others: CLICK HERE

Full NI representative results – UNIONISTS ONLY, + analysed by DUP, UUP, and TUV voters only: CLICK HERE


Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE

- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).

Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (religion), NI constitutional position, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.

The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).

NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.


Methodology

Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 3rd to 5th March 2023. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (14,000+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 1,050 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 1,050 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.

Media Coverage


BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Analysis of results): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White – LucidTalk: Commentary article): CLICK HERE

BELFAST TELEGRAPH (PODCAST – with Alex Kane and Bill White): CLICK HERE

..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll, and other LucidTalk polls, can be found on the BELFAST TELEGRAPH, and other media websites.

IRISH NEWS (Review of Windsor Framework poll results): CLICK HERE


LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:


LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards. LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.


All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).


LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org


For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545

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